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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-05-10T07:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-10T07:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30670/-1
CME Note: [IN REVIEW] Full asymmetric halo CME seen to the SW in all three coronagraphs. Source is a large eruption and several M-class flares from Active Region 13664, including a long-duration M4.9 flare associated with the post-eruptive arcades. Widely opening field lines and a rising loop of ejecta seen starting at 2024-05-13T08:10Z in SDO AIA 193/171. Ejecta and post-eruptive brightening and arcades seen at 08:43Z in SDO AIA 131/304. Post eruptive arcades at 11:15Z in SDO AIA 171/193/304. Possible arrival signature (in review) characterized by Btotal increasing from 5nT 2024-05-11T08:55Z to 12nT at 08:58Z, an increase in solar wind speed from ~820 km/s at 08:55Z to 925 km/s, with an increase in temperature as well.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-12T08:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-12T03:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 8.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-05-10T09:50
Radial velocity (km/s): 1170
Longitude (deg): 25W
Latitude (deg): 10S
Half-angular width (deg): 33

Notes: CME is likely to 'sweep up' preceding CME from X1.1 flare at 09/1743UTC.
Space weather advisor: CL

Lead Time: 29.42 hour(s)
Difference: 5.92 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-05-11T03:30Z

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